Changes in Wind Regimes Over Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh Regions: A Climate Change Perspective

Abstract

We have examined the changes in surface wind speed patterns during two epochs (F21: 1979–1999- and L21: 2000–2020) to assess wind variability across time, aiming to enhance our understanding of shifts in wind energy potential across Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh. Based on statistically robust Chi-square and K-S tests, it is noted that wind speeds at 10 and 100 m above ground level (AGL) have changed significantly during L21. Results indicate that the change in land use and land cover (LULC) may have impacted the trend of surface wind speed in association with 2 m temperature. The conversion of crop and forest land to woody savannas and further savannas and barren land to permanent snow and ice has decreased surface roughness and enhanced wind speed. The frequency distribution indicates a decrease in 10 m wind speed at a lower magnitude over all the locations, but an increase over Kargil is noted. Daily variation of wind speed at 10 and 100 m AGL revealed a significant increasing trend during daytime. Spatial differences between F21 and L21 have demonstrated that wind speed has increased by 0.2 (0.15) m s⁻¹ at 10 m and 0.5 (0.25) m s⁻¹ at 100 m during winter (summer) months, along with surface temperature over south-eastern Ladakh. By examining the monthly distribution of wind power density at specific locations, we identified that Daulat Beg Oldi, Rhongo and Chushul are the areas with notable wind energy power potential. The monthly variation suggests that winter months are more favourable for wind energy harvesting than summer months.