A temporal playbook for multiple wave dengue pandemic from Latin America and Asia to Italy

Abstract

For the first time, we apply the eRG framework to describe the temporal evolution of the Dengue multi-wave pandemics. We show that such a minimal tool effectively captures the more complex dynamics of vector–host epidemics. We test the framework on the Dengue history of several countries located in both Latin America and Asia by estimating the infection rate and the total number of infected individuals. We also observe a strong correlation between the total number of infected individuals and the changes in the local temperature. Our results further support the expectation that global warming is bound to increase the cases of Dengue worldwide. We then move to investigate, via the eRG, the recent outbreak in Fano, Italy and offer our projections.