Technology roadmap of low-carbon hydrogen: Trends for risk management strategies

Abstract

This study employs a Technology Roadmap (TRM) to characterise the low-carbon hydrogen network across time horizons and identify supply chain risk management (SCRM) trends, key players and factors to expand the low-carbon hydrogen economy. A key novelty lies in assessing technological trends through decarbonisation risks. By focusing on transition-specific risks, TRM supports identifying technological vulnerabilities and strategic decisions on production, storage, transport, and investment under uncertainty. Data from 22 granted patents, 77 pending patents, and 50 articles outlined trends and gaps over time. Operational risk management and alkaline electrolysis had great intellectual property interest at short-term. Medium-term trends showed broader SCRM aspects (e.g., quality assurance, failure prevention and monitoring) and greater circular economy focus than short- and long-term. Long-term roadmap highlighted international efforts to scale hydrogen via cost-effective and exergetic-efficient supply chains across sectors. Key management strategies include addressing human error, improving real-time monitoring, decentralised production based on regional factors (spatial resolution), flexible assets, and integrating waste-to-energy applications. Policies should target electrolysis efficiency, advanced storage, safety control, biofuels integration, and large-scale solutions to mitigate renewable intermittency. Future research should optimise failure prevention, predictive maintenance, emergency response, ventilation and obstacle design, and proper operational training. Alternative biofuels (e.g., ethanol, glycerine, biogas) as scalable inputs and recyclability remain underexplored. It is expected to provide insights to strengthen hydrogen economy and energy transition.