Temporal trends in pediatric intestinal intussusception following the COVID-19 outbreak in Seoul, Korea.

IF 0.9 4区医学 Q3 PEDIATRICS

Pediatrics International Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1111/ped.70224

Jung Hee Hong, Kiook Baek

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic led to significant epidemiological shifts in various diseases due to reduced interpersonal contact. This study examined changes in pediatric intestinal intussusception incidence, a disease with unclear etiology, during the pandemic.

Methods: Weekly intussusception cases in children ≤10 years old in Seoul (2009-2022) were collected from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA). Trends were analyzed using spline functions, and breakpoints were identified via student methods. Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models assessed incidence changes relative to predicted values. Cases were stratified by surgical intervention, and the complicated-to-uncomplicated case ratio was evaluated.

Results: A sharp decline in intussusception incidence was observed around 2020, with breakpoints aligning with the first reported COVID-19 case. Post-breakpoint, total cases decreased by 58.8% (95% CrI: -79.0%, 7.8%), with reductions of 62.4% (95% CrI: -78.9%, -20.2%) for uncomplicated cases and 51.1% (95% CrI: -62.6%, -33.8%) for complicated cases. The complicated-to-uncomplicated ratio increased by 43.3% (95% CrI: 13.0%, 87.1%). When analyzing only the post-COVID-19 period, total and uncomplicated cases increased by 23.1% (95% CrI: 5.7%, 45.5%) from May 2022, but the change in ratio was not statistically significant.

Conclusion: Pediatric intussusception incidence significantly declined following COVID-19 onset, supporting a link between disease occurrence and contact or infectious exposure.

查看原文本刊更多论文

韩国首尔新冠肺炎疫情后儿童肠套叠的时间趋势

背景：COVID-19大流行导致人际接触减少，导致各种疾病的流行病学发生重大变化。本研究调查了大流行期间小儿肠套叠发病率的变化，这是一种病因不明的疾病。方法：收集首尔地区（2009-2022）每周≤10岁儿童肠套叠病例（HIRA）。使用样条函数分析趋势，并通过学生方法确定断点。贝叶斯结构时间序列（BSTS）模型评估了相对于预测值的发病率变化。通过手术干预对病例进行分层，并评估复杂与非复杂病例的比例。结果：2020年前后，肠套叠发病率急剧下降，断点与首次报告的COVID-19病例一致。断点后总病例减少58.8% (95% CrI: -79.0%, 7.8%)，其中无并发症病例减少62.4% (95% CrI: -78.9%, -20.2%)，并发症病例减少51.1% （95% CrI: -62.6%, -33.8%）。并发症与非并发症比增加43.3% （95% CrI: 13.0%, 87.1%）。如果只分析新冠肺炎后，总病例和无并发症病例比2022年5月增加23.1% (95% CrI: 5.7%, 45.5%)，但比例变化无统计学意义。结论：小儿肠套叠发病率在COVID-19发病后显著下降，支持疾病发生与接触或感染性暴露之间的联系。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Pediatrics International 医学-小儿科

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

7.10%

发文量

519

审稿时长

12 months

期刊介绍： Publishing articles of scientific excellence in pediatrics and child health delivery, Pediatrics International aims to encourage those involved in the research, practice and delivery of child health to share their experiences, ideas and achievements. Formerly Acta Paediatrica Japonica, the change in name in 1999 to Pediatrics International, reflects the Journal''s international status both in readership and contributions (approximately 45% of articles published are from non-Japanese authors). The Editors continue their strong commitment to the sharing of scientific information for the benefit of children everywhere. Pediatrics International opens the door to all authors throughout the world. Manuscripts are judged by two experts solely upon the basis of their contribution of original data, original ideas and their presentation.