Harnessing Landscape Genomics to Evaluate Genomic Vulnerability and Future Climate Resilience in an East Asia Perennial.

Abstract

In this era of rapid climate change, understanding the adaptive potential of organisms is imperative for buffering biodiversity loss. Genomic forecasting provides invaluable insights into population vulnerability and adaptive potential under diverse climatic conditions, thereby facilitating management interventions and bolstering shaping species-specific germplasm conservation strategies. We primarily employed landscape genomics approaches, leveraging single-nucleotide polymorphisms obtained through whole-genome resequencing of 201 individuals across 43 Rheum palmatum complex populations, to pinpoint adaptive variation and its significance in the context of future climates, delineate seed zones, and establish guidelines for ex situ germplasm conservation. The species complex exhibited strong signatures of local adaptation and differential genomic vulnerabilities across its distribution range, with eastern lineage populations facing significant maladaptation risks under future climate scenarios. Using diverse datasets of putatively adaptive loci and climate change scenarios, we delineated three distinct seed zones within the species' range, estimated varying sample sizes per zone to capture most adaptive diversity, and predicted shifts in seed zone centroids ranging from 48.3 to 359.3 km from historical distributions to mitigate climate change impacts. Collectively, our findings underscore the importance of integrating genomic and environmental data to forecast the adaptive trajectory of an East Asian perennial under anticipated climate changes, guide seed zone delineation for germplasm conservation and enhance population resilience. These results provide a blueprint for designing targeted conservation strategies and restoration plans in other imperilled species.