Regional drivers or local constraints? Spatial patterns and development pathways of specialized villages in Henan, China

Abstract

Specialized Villages (SVs) have emerged as a pivotal strategy for rural revitalization in China. Yet, the regional conditions underpinning their formation and sustainability remain underexplored. This study examines the spatial heterogeneity and drivers of SV evolution in Henan Province, employing stepwise regression analysis, GeoDetector, and Shapley value decomposition to analyze the contributions and interactions of climate, accessibility, economic development, and governance factors on SV formation, disappearance, persistence, and new formation rates. Results reveal that higher rainfall and temperature stability promote SV persistence and formation by reducing production risks, while peripheral regions with improved road accessibility exhibit higher SV new formation rates and lower disappearance rates. Conversely, economically developed regions experience higher SV disappearance rates, highlighting the paradoxical interplay between prosperity and specialization sustainability. Strong grassroots leadership and regional branding capacity further enhance SV persistence. These findings underscore the importance of place-based strategies in SV planning, suggesting that aligning interventions with local climatic, infrastructural, and institutional conditions can foster sustainable rural specialization. The methodological framework provides a replicable approach for analyzing SV dynamics in diverse regional contexts, offering valuable insights for rural policy and planning under the broader goal of sustainable rural revitalization.