Is electric mobility effective in smoothing the electricity load diagram? Evidence from Europe

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-10-02 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103844

Sónia Almeida Neves, Diogo Santos Pereira, António Cardoso Marques

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper focuses on the impact of electric mobility, namely battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), on peak, intermediate, and valley levels of electricity demand. Monthly data from January 2018 to August 2023, for 26 European countries was used. A threshold model was applied because the impact on electricity demand of BEV and PHEV adoption (sales of new EVs) depends on their penetration level (the number of EVs already in circulation). The results of these models showed that BEV adoption initially decreases electricity demand in peak periods, but that this effect diminishes as the number of BEVs in circulation increases. BEV adoption was also found to increase valley and intermediate electricity demand levels up to the first threshold of BEV penetration, but above this, sales of BEVs reduced demand in these periods. Regarding PHEVs, when their level of penetration is low, new sales actually increase peak, intermediate, and valley electricity consumption. Overall, this paper found evidence that, with the right policies, BEVs and PHEVs can smooth the electricity load diagram and, in so doing, increase the economic efficiency and sustainability of electricity systems.

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电动汽车是否能有效地平滑电力负荷图？来自欧洲的证据

本文主要研究电动汽车，即纯电动汽车（bev）和插电式混合动力汽车（phev）对峰值、中间和谷级电力需求的影响。研究使用了26个欧洲国家2018年1月至2023年8月的月度数据。由于纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车的采用（新电动汽车的销量）对电力需求的影响取决于它们的渗透水平（已在流通的电动汽车数量），因此采用了阈值模型。这些模型的结果表明，采用纯电动汽车最初会降低高峰时段的电力需求，但随着流通中的纯电动汽车数量的增加，这种影响会逐渐减弱。研究还发现，纯电动汽车的采用将山谷和中间电力需求水平提高到纯电动汽车渗透的第一个门槛，但在此之上，纯电动汽车的销售减少了这些时期的需求。对于插电式混合动力汽车，当其普及率较低时，新销售实际上增加了高峰、中间和低谷的用电量。总体而言，本文发现有证据表明，在正确的政策下，纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力车可以平滑电力负荷图，从而提高电力系统的经济效率和可持续性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.