Regional water supply capacity assessment in different drought scenarios based on Budyko supply and demand framework

Abstract

Study region

Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan Province, China.

Study focus

This study aims to assess water resource availability under extreme drought conditions by developing a Budyko supply-demand framework. This approach integrates hydrological engineering measures and drought scenarios to evaluate monthly-scale water supply capacity (WSC), estimate WSC for low-probability extreme drought events, and identify key factors influencing WSC variations through elasticity analysis.

New hydrological insights

The study highlights substantial regional variations in water supply capacity across Chuxiong, with severe deficits noted in areas like Yuanmou County, particularly during drought years. Sensitivity analysis shows that water demand exerts a stronger influence on water supply reliability than water availability, especially in regions with high demand elasticity such as Yuanmou and Wuding This underscores the critical role of demand management in addressing water shortages. Moreover, while the region’s water supply is constrained by existing infrastructure, improvements in distribution networks and efficient management practices can significantly mitigate the effects of fluctuating demand. By successfully reconstructing long-term water supply processes and capturing the impacts of extreme drought events, the research provides valuable insights into the hydrological dynamics of the region. These findings are essential for developing strategies to enhance water resource resilience, support sustainable development, and address global water security challenges amid climate variability and human-induced changes.