Competing explanations in Bayesian networks — The small town murder problem revisited

IF 2 4区医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL

Science & Justice Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI:10.1016/j.scijus.2025.101337

Arvid Sjölander , Gustav Lindkvist

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The use of probability theory and statistical reasoning in legal contexts is controversial, with several well-known thought experiments highlighting perceived paradoxes. One example is the small town murder problem, recently discussed by de Zoete et al., who argued that the perceived paradoxes arise from a failure to properly distinguish between hypotheses and evidence, and can be resolved using Bayesian networks. While we agree with their general conclusions, we contend that their analysis of the small town murder problem overlooks a central issue and underutilizes the full potential of Bayesian modeling. In this note, we propose an alternative analysis of the problem, drawing on well-known results on conditioning on a common effect of two factors.

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贝叶斯网络中相互矛盾的解释——小镇谋杀问题的重访

概率论和统计推理在法律环境中的使用是有争议的，有几个著名的思想实验突出了感知的悖论。一个例子是小镇谋杀问题，最近由de Zoete等人讨论，他们认为感知的悖论源于未能正确区分假设和证据，并且可以使用贝叶斯网络来解决。虽然我们同意他们的总体结论，但我们认为他们对小镇谋杀问题的分析忽略了一个核心问题，并且没有充分利用贝叶斯模型的全部潜力。在这篇文章中，我们提出了另一种分析方法，利用众所周知的两个因素共同作用下的条件作用的结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Science & Justice 医学-病理学

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

15.80%

发文量

审稿时长

81 days

期刊介绍： Science & Justice provides a forum to promote communication and publication of original articles, reviews and correspondence on subjects that spark debates within the Forensic Science Community and the criminal justice sector. The journal provides a medium whereby all aspects of applying science to legal proceedings can be debated and progressed. Science & Justice is published six times a year, and will be of interest primarily to practising forensic scientists and their colleagues in related fields. It is chiefly concerned with the publication of formal scientific papers, in keeping with its international learned status, but will not accept any article describing experimentation on animals which does not meet strict ethical standards. Promote communication and informed debate within the Forensic Science Community and the criminal justice sector. To promote the publication of learned and original research findings from all areas of the forensic sciences and by so doing to advance the profession. To promote the publication of case based material by way of case reviews. To promote the publication of conference proceedings which are of interest to the forensic science community. To provide a medium whereby all aspects of applying science to legal proceedings can be debated and progressed. To appeal to all those with an interest in the forensic sciences.