Direct and indirect electrification in the German industry from a sector-coupled energy system modeling perspective

Abstract

To achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality, a shift from fossil fuels to GHG-neutral energy sources is essential in the industrial sector. Direct and indirect electrification are the primary strategies for this fuel switch. This study uses four normative target scenarios to derive plausible ranges of electrification in the German industry, representing a highly industrialized European country. Scenario parameterization ranges from favoring direct to favoring indirect electrification. Here, a new perspective is added to existing literature: A sector-coupled energy system model is combined with consistent scenarios and increased technological resolution in the industrial sector to include 16 different processes and 17 process heat supplying technologies. The results show that direct electrification is essential in all scenarios, even for optimistic assumptions for synthetic energy carriers. By 2045, electricity accounts for 47–52% of industrial final energy consumption, including non-energy use. Still, gaseous and liquid energy carriers remain essential, accounting for 40–44%. To supply energy to the industrial sector in a GHG-neutral energy system, 43–46% of domestic variable renewable energy and 51–63% of domestic power-to-X capacity are required, in addition to synthetic imports and biogenic supply. The variation in electrification across scenarios is used to order different energy uses from all sectors: Trucks, cement production, and high-temperature process heat strongly depend on scenario assumptions and vary by more than 20%. Low-temperature process heat and space and water heating vary by 10–20%. Crude steel production, chemicals production, and light-duty vehicles vary by less than 5%.