Updated hazard and risk assessment for middle-southern Turkiye by PSHA methods after two damaged earthquakes in 2023

IF 8.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Engineering Geology Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI:10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108391

Wenyan Wang , Jun Hu

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Abstract

This study reassesses the seismic hazard and economic risks in southeastern Turkiye, particularly around the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), following the 2023 M_w7.8 and M_w7.6 earthquakes. Using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with Monte Carlo simulations, we compiled data from 5775 earthquake events occurring between 1990 and 2023. The results reveal significantly higher seismic hazard levels than previous models estimated. The average Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) along major fault zones reaches 0.564 g, with values up to 0.802 g at the intersection of the EAFZ and the Narlidag Fault Zone (NFZ). Spectral accelerations (SA) for short periods (0.2 s) reached 1.865 g, and SA for longer periods (1.0 s) ranged from 0.388 g to 0.641 g. Site effects were incorporated, with PGA amplification factors exceeding 1.6 in soft soil areas, reflecting the variability of ground motion. Comparisons with previous seismic models, such as the Middle East Earthquake Model (EMME14) and the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20), revealed that seismic hazard in the region had been underestimated. To validate the model, we compared the predicted values with recorded ground motions from the 2023 earthquakes. The results showed a good match, confirming the reliability of the hazard model. Economic risk analysis highlighted high potential losses in provinces such as Hatay, Kahramanmaras, Gaziantep, and Adiyaman. Unreinforced masonry buildings and industrial buildings are at significant risk of damage. The findings emphasize the urgent need for improved building safety, enhanced disaster preparedness, and targeted risk reduction strategies in high-risk areas.

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2023年两次破坏性地震后，土耳其中南部的PSHA方法更新的危害和风险评估

本研究在2023年Mw7.8和Mw7.6地震之后，重新评估了土耳其东南部，特别是东安纳托利亚断裂带（EAFZ）周围的地震灾害和经济风险。利用概率地震危害分析（PSHA）和蒙特卡罗模拟，我们收集了1990年至2023年间发生的5775次地震事件的数据。结果显示，地震危险等级明显高于以前的模型估计。沿主要断裂带的平均峰值地加速度（PGA）达到0.564 g，在东安断裂带与纳里达格断裂带（NFZ）相交处最高达0.802 g。短周期（0.2 s）的光谱加速度（SA）达到1.865 g，长周期（1.0 s）的光谱加速度（SA）在0.388 ~ 0.641 g之间。考虑场地效应，软土地区PGA放大因子大于1.6，反映了地震动的变异性。与中东地震模型（EMME14）和欧洲地震危险性模型（ESHM20）等以前的地震模型比较，发现该地区的地震危险性被低估了。为了验证该模型，我们将预测值与2023年地震的地面运动记录进行了比较。结果吻合良好，证实了风险模型的可靠性。经济风险分析强调了哈塔伊、Kahramanmaras、Gaziantep和Adiyaman等省的潜在损失。未加固的砖石建筑和工业建筑有很大的损坏风险。研究结果强调，迫切需要在高风险地区改善建筑安全、加强灾害准备和有针对性的减少风险战略。

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来源期刊

Engineering Geology 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

13.70

自引率

12.20%

发文量

327

审稿时长

5.6 months

期刊介绍： Engineering Geology, an international interdisciplinary journal, serves as a bridge between earth sciences and engineering, focusing on geological and geotechnical engineering. It welcomes studies with relevance to engineering, environmental concerns, and safety, catering to engineering geologists with backgrounds in geology or civil/mining engineering. Topics include applied geomorphology, structural geology, geophysics, geochemistry, environmental geology, hydrogeology, land use planning, natural hazards, remote sensing, soil and rock mechanics, and applied geotechnical engineering. The journal provides a platform for research at the intersection of geology and engineering disciplines.