China's green leadership in international aviation: Spatial patterns, influence factors and future trends of carbon emission under the Belt and Road Initiative

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI:10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108206

Rundong Feng , Yufei Huang , Fuyuan Wang , Kaiyong Wang , Shenghe Liu , Heather Ho , Hubin Wei , Weidong Liu

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Abstract

Globalization and international cooperation have significantly increased aviation demand and its associated carbon emissions, particularly within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which involves over 150 countries. However, limited attention has been given to assessing the impacts and future projections of the BRI on aviation emissions. This study integrated multisource big data, Geodetector, and cross-classified multilevel modeling to quantify the interaction effects of the BRI and natural–anthropogenic factors on China's international aviation carbon emissions in 2019, and to predicted patterns and trends for 2030. Results showed that total aviation carbon emissions reached 16.36 Mt. in 2019, with emissions mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Western Europe. Furthermore, BRI-related trade volume and infrastructure investment, interaction with GDP, population, and airport construction explained 87 % of aviation carbon emissions. Projections indicated that total emissions will increase by 35.8 % from 2019 to 2030 under the BRI, while emissions per unit of GDP and per capita emissions are expected to decline by 68.1 % and 56.6 %, respectively, with Gini indices decreasing by 21 % and 36 %. BRI countries should establish more active green and low-carbon aviation co-operations and optimize flight routes to promote low-carbon development for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

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中国在国际航空领域的绿色领导：“一带一路”下碳排放的空间格局、影响因素及未来趋势

全球化和国际合作大大增加了航空需求及其相关的碳排放，特别是在涉及150多个国家的“一带一路”倡议范围内。然而，评估“一带一路”倡议对航空排放的影响和未来预测的关注有限。本研究结合多源大数据、地理探测器和交叉分类多层次模型，量化了“一带一路”与自然-人为因素对2019年中国国际航空碳排放的交互影响，并预测了2030年中国国际航空碳排放的模式和趋势。结果表明，2019年全球航空碳排放总量为16.36亿吨，主要集中在东南亚、东亚和西欧地区。此外，与“一带一路”相关的贸易额、基础设施投资、与GDP、人口和机场建设的相互作用解释了87%的航空碳排放。预测显示，2019年至2030年，“一带一路”倡议下的总排放量将增加35.8%，单位国内生产总值排放量和人均排放量将分别下降68.1%和56.6%，基尼系数将分别下降21%和36%。各国应积极开展绿色低碳航空合作，优化航线，推动低碳发展，实现2030年可持续发展议程。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Environmental Impact Assessment Review ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

12.60

自引率

10.10%

发文量

200

审稿时长

33 days

期刊介绍： Environmental Impact Assessment Review is an interdisciplinary journal that serves a global audience of practitioners, policymakers, and academics involved in assessing the environmental impact of policies, projects, processes, and products. The journal focuses on innovative theory and practice in environmental impact assessment (EIA). Papers are expected to present innovative ideas, be topical, and coherent. The journal emphasizes concepts, methods, techniques, approaches, and systems related to EIA theory and practice.