Modeling Net-Zero: A comparative analysis of deep decarbonization studies of the US electric system

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of 10 recent deep decarbonization, model-based studies, focusing on future low-carbon US electricity systems. The research focuses on the structure of a decarbonized electric system, identifies key enabling technologies, and explores the role of corporate buyers in advancing these technologies, the economic and physical characteristics captured in the studies and explicitly does not consider the political issue of equity of distribution of the technologies. Key findings reveal that wind and solar resources could supply 77–96 % of generation needs, but achieving net-zero emissions economically will likely require additional “clean firm” technologies such as nuclear, natural gas with carbon capture and storage (NGCCS), biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), geothermal, and hydroelectric power, or the addition of long-duration energy storage to supply energy during extended periods of low renewables output. Our analysis highlights the significant role of expanded transmission infrastructure, flexible demand measures, and the importance of corporate investments in emerging technologies. This review underscores the economic and operational feasibility of achieving net-zero emissions and offers actionable insights for policymakers and researchers. Recommended future steps in modeling and detailed analysis include more attention to the modeling of operational reliability as well as planned resilience and to the demonstration of the flexibility value of demand-side resources.