Leading Satellite‐Based Evapotranspiration Products Insufficiently Capture Interannual Variability: Evidence From GRACE/FO and In Situ Observations

Abstract

Satellite‐based evapotranspiration (ET) products such as OpenET and GLEAM are widely used for drought monitoring and ecosystem‐climate studies. However, their ability to accurately capture interannual variability (IAV), a key requirement for such applications, remains under‐evaluated. Here, we assessed IAV in OpenET and GLEAM using an independent water balance approach that combined precipitation, discharge, and GRACE/FO total water storage anomalies across nine river basins in the western United States. Even after accounting for observational uncertainty through a Monte Carlo approach, both products systematically underestimate IAV relative to water balance‐based ET, by more than 60% on average. This result is further supported by long‐term tower measurements from AmeriFlux. We also demonstrated that ET sensitivity to climate and vegetation drivers in OpenET and GLEAM differ substantially from water balance‐based estimates. These findings reveal important limitations in satellite‐based ET products and highlight the need for improved IAV representation to support ecosystem and climate applications.