Modeling Climate and Hydropower Influences on the Movement Decisions of an Anadromous Species

IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Markus A. Min, Rebecca A. Buchanan, Mark D. Scheuerell
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In large river basins, migratory fish populations are threatened by the combination of hydropower and climate change. With river temperatures rising and hydropower development increasing globally, the longstanding monitoring programs for threatened Pacific salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin present an opportunity to study these impacts over extended time scales. We fit a statistical model to 20 years of PIT‐tagging data to jointly model the effects of temperature and dam operations (spill management) on the movement of Steelhead (anadromous Oncorhynchus mykiss) during their adult pre‐spawn migration. We modeled the relationship between these factors and behaviors that pose mortality risks, including natal tributary overshoot (ascending a dam upstream of a natal tributary) and non‐natal tributary use. We then used the posterior distributions of model‐estimated parameters to predict the homing success of fish to natal tributaries under different climate and hydropower scenarios. Across the populations in our study, movement decisions were consistently thermally influenced, with temperature having a negative relationship with natal homing and a positive relationship with both natal tributary overshoot and non‐natal tributary use. Another consistent finding across the populations in our study was that higher overshoot rates were associated with lower homing rates. Despite data limitations associated with the PIT‐tag array network, we found evidence for population‐specific benefits of winter spill on natal homing success, which is currently being implemented to assist the downstream migration of overshooting Steelhead. We demonstrate how integrating the effects of climate and hydropower management actions with movement ecology provides powerful insights into how species may respond to future scenarios. In our case study, we found that pre‐spawn mortality of Steelhead is likely to increase with future climate change due to temperature‐driven interactions with the hydrosystem, but there is potential for hydropower managers to partially offset these impacts.
模拟气候和水力对溯河物种运动决策的影响
在大型河流流域,洄游鱼类种群受到水电和气候变化的双重威胁。随着河流温度的上升和全球水电开发的增加,哥伦比亚河流域受威胁的太平洋鲑鱼种群的长期监测项目提供了一个机会,可以在更长的时间尺度上研究这些影响。我们将一个统计模型拟合到20年的PIT标记数据中,以共同模拟温度和大坝操作(泄漏管理)对钢头鱼(溯河产卵的Oncorhynchus mykiss)成鱼产卵前迁移期间运动的影响。我们建立了这些因素与构成死亡风险的行为之间的关系模型,包括出生时的支流超调(在出生时的支流上游上坝)和非出生时的支流使用。然后,我们利用模型估计参数的后验分布来预测不同气候和水电情景下鱼类回巢成功。在我们研究的人群中,运动决策始终受到热影响,温度与出生归巢呈负相关,与出生支流超调和非出生支流使用呈正相关。在我们的研究中,另一个一致的发现是,过高的超调率与较低的归巢率有关。尽管与PIT -标签阵列网络相关的数据有限,但我们发现了冬季泄漏对出生归巢成功的种群特定益处的证据,这目前正在实施,以帮助过冲的Steelhead下游迁移。我们展示了如何将气候和水电管理行动的影响与运动生态学相结合,为物种如何应对未来情景提供了强有力的见解。在我们的案例研究中,我们发现,由于温度驱动与水文系统的相互作用,钢头鱼的产卵前死亡率可能会随着未来的气候变化而增加,但水电管理人员有可能部分抵消这些影响。
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来源期刊
Global Change Biology
Global Change Biology 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
21.50
自引率
5.20%
发文量
497
审稿时长
3.3 months
期刊介绍: Global Change Biology is an environmental change journal committed to shaping the future and addressing the world's most pressing challenges, including sustainability, climate change, environmental protection, food and water safety, and global health. Dedicated to fostering a profound understanding of the impacts of global change on biological systems and offering innovative solutions, the journal publishes a diverse range of content, including primary research articles, technical advances, research reviews, reports, opinions, perspectives, commentaries, and letters. Starting with the 2024 volume, Global Change Biology will transition to an online-only format, enhancing accessibility and contributing to the evolution of scholarly communication.
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