Application of decision support systems to deliver targeted remediation of rural settlements several decades after the Chernobyl accident.

Abstract

The article presents a targeted remediation system for 71 rural settlements in five southwestern districts of the Bryansk region, Russia, affected by the Chernobyl accident. The most effective technologies for reducing radiation doses for residents of rural settlements are considered. Remediation strategies have been developed by assessing the current radiation levels, demographic conditions, and economic land use, while optimizing the use of seven technologies. This process relies on computer geographic information systems for decision support, specifically ReSCA and GIDSS. Two approaches to restoring rural settlements are presented, focusing on either economic costs or social acceptability. For each settlement, we identified the most effective targeted remediation measures by considering radiological indicators, associated costs, and the social acceptability of the technologies involved. The estimated cost of implementing remediation technologies to reduce radiation exposure of the population is between €12.3 million and €13.3 million. The implemented remediation strategies could reduce the collective radiation dose to the population by 79-88 man-Sv, with an average cost of 151-156 thousand €/man-Sv. Over the last 15-20 years, the expenses associated with settlement remediation have surged by 4.7 times, while the potential savings in collective radiation exposure for residents have decreased by 35%. Research indicates that the most impactful strategies involve utilizing ferrocene for livestock and the surface improvement of grassland in inhabited areas. The radiological and economic efficiency of the radical improvement of hayfields and pastures has sharply decreased compared to the early 2000s due to high costs of its implementation. In 16 settlements, using all effective remediation technologies will not decrease the population's total radiation dose below 1 mSv/a. At the same time, the reduction factor for the total radiation dose experienced by residents in the most vulnerable settlements is expected to range from 1.7 to 2.2 times.