Dynamic Fit Index Cutoffs for Time Series Network Models.

Abstract

In this study, we extend the dynamic fit index (DFI) developed by McNeish and Wolf to the context of time series analysis. DFI is a simulation-based method for deriving fit index cutoff values tailored to the specific model and data characteristics. Through simulations, we show that DFI cutoffs for detecting an omitted path in time series network models tend to be closer to exact fit than the popular benchmark values developed by Hu and Bentler. Moreover, cutoff values vary by number of variables, network density, number of time points, and form of misspecification. Notably, using 10% as the upper limit of Type I and Type II error rates, the original DFI approach fails to identify cutoffs for detecting an omitted path when effect size and/or sample size is small. To address this problem, we propose two alternatives that allow for the derivation of cutoffs using more lenient criteria. DFI_A extends the original DFI approach by removing the upper limit of Type I and Type II error rates, whereas DFI_B aims at maximizing classification quality measured by the Matthews correlation coefficient. We demonstrate the utility of these approaches using simulation and empirical data and discuss their implications in practice.