Jae Young Hwang, Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya, Shirshendu Chatterjee, Thomas L Marsh, Joshua F Pedro, David H Gent
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The economic value of cultivars resistant to disease is of great interest, but how growers change their fungicide use in response to host resistance may be nuanced. We draw upon a well-described data set of the incidence of hop plants with powdery mildew and associated production meta-data and demonstrate the utility of Bayesian networks as a framework for quantifying causal relationships for fungicides use and cost in response to host resistance. Conditional Gaussian Bayesian network models applied to cultivars differing in race-specific resistance to powdery mildew revealed cultivar resistance to powdery mildew influenced disease levels in early spring, which had causal effect on how often and what fungicides growers later applied. Annual costs depended not only on the number of applications made but the specific types of fungicides growers selected. Fungicide costs were little changed on cultivars that possessed race- specific resistance to only one of two extant strains of the pathogen. For cultivars with resistance to both pathogen strains, annual costs of fungicides were reduced commensurate with the level of resistance. Predicted values from the Bayesian networks and simulation indicate that growers apply a baseline level of fungicide, independent of cultivar resistance. Fungicide cost savings result from how fungicide inputs differentially scale with the incidence of powdery mildew and the type of fungicides used. Our analyses indicate that for a high value crop, deployment of disease resistance may cause complex and unexpected changes in growers' fungicide use patterns that may not be obvious in simplified randomized controlled trials.
期刊介绍:
Phytopathology publishes articles on fundamental research that advances understanding of the nature of plant diseases, the agents that cause them, their spread, the losses they cause, and measures that can be used to control them. Phytopathology considers manuscripts covering all aspects of plant diseases including bacteriology, host-parasite biochemistry and cell biology, biological control, disease control and pest management, description of new pathogen species description of new pathogen species, ecology and population biology, epidemiology, disease etiology, host genetics and resistance, mycology, nematology, plant stress and abiotic disorders, postharvest pathology and mycotoxins, and virology. Papers dealing mainly with taxonomy, such as descriptions of new plant pathogen taxa are acceptable if they include plant disease research results such as pathogenicity, host range, etc. Taxonomic papers that focus on classification, identification, and nomenclature below the subspecies level may also be submitted to Phytopathology.