Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Persistent Hypoparathyroidism After Total or Completion Thyroidectomy.

IF 1.5 4区医学 Q2 OTORHINOLARYNGOLOGY

Clinical Otolaryngology Pub Date : 2025-10-02 DOI:10.1111/coa.70039

Sam P J van Dijk, Carolien C H M Maas, Ali Alshangi, M H Elise van Driel, Eline A Feitsma, Caroline M J van Kinschot, Ivona Lončar, Charlotte van Noord, Linetta B Koppert, Schelto Kruijff, David van Klaveren, Cornelis Verhoef, Robin P Peeters, Tessa M van Ginhoven

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to predict the occurrence of persistent hypoparathyroidism after total or completion thyroidectomy.

Methods: This multicentre retrospective cohort study included patients who underwent total or completion thyroidectomy between January 2010 and June 2021 in 12 Dutch hospitals.

Results: Of the 366 patients included, 44 (12.0%) patients developed persistent hypoparathyroidism in the first year follow-up after surgery. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that ΔPTH the day after surgery, corrected calcium the day after surgery, and not identifying at least one parathyroid during surgery were strong predictors for persistent hypoparathyroidism. The discriminative ability of the model was excellent (optimism-corrected C-index: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.84-0.92) with moderately calibrated predictions.

Conclusions: The model proposed in this study could be used to perform an individual assessment of patients at risk for persistent hypoparathyroidism after total thyroidectomy.

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完全或完全甲状腺切除术后持续性甲状旁腺功能减退的预后模型的建立和验证。

背景：本研究的目的是建立和验证一个临床预测模型，以预测甲状腺全切除术或完全切除术后持续甲状旁腺功能减退的发生。方法：这项多中心回顾性队列研究纳入了2010年1月至2021年6月期间在12家荷兰医院接受甲状腺全切除术或完全切除术的患者。结果：在纳入的366例患者中，44例（12.0%）患者在术后第一年随访中出现持续性甲状旁腺功能减退。多变量logistic回归分析显示，术后第一天ΔPTH、术后第一天补钙、手术中未发现至少一种甲状旁腺是持续甲状旁腺功能减退的强预测因子。该模型的判别能力非常出色（乐观校正c指数：0.88,95% CI: 0.84-0.92），具有中等校准的预测。结论：本研究提出的模型可用于对甲状腺全切除术后持续性甲状旁腺功能减退风险患者进行个体评估。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Clinical Otolaryngology 医学-耳鼻喉科学

CiteScore

4.00

自引率

4.80%

发文量

106

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Clinical Otolaryngology is a bimonthly journal devoted to clinically-oriented research papers of the highest scientific standards dealing with: current otorhinolaryngological practice audiology, otology, balance, rhinology, larynx, voice and paediatric ORL head and neck oncology head and neck plastic and reconstructive surgery continuing medical education and ORL training The emphasis is on high quality new work in the clinical field and on fresh, original research. Each issue begins with an editorial expressing the personal opinions of an individual with a particular knowledge of a chosen subject. The main body of each issue is then devoted to original papers carrying important results for those working in the field. In addition, topical review articles are published discussing a particular subject in depth, including not only the opinions of the author but also any controversies surrounding the subject. • Negative/null results In order for research to advance, negative results, which often make a valuable contribution to the field, should be published. However, articles containing negative or null results are frequently not considered for publication or rejected by journals. We welcome papers of this kind, where appropriate and valid power calculations are included that give confidence that a negative result can be relied upon.