Tehran’s household waste composition scenarios using a futures studies approach

IF 3.4 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI:10.1007/s13762-025-06691-z

F. Ebrahimi Fini, M. R. Tabesh, F. Babaei Semiromi, M. Jalili Ghazizade, A. H. Heidari

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Abstract

Accurate data on the generation of municipal waste are essential for local governments in outlining policies for waste management. The present study aims to identify key factors influencing the generation and composition of future household waste (HW) in Tehran and to investigate their interrelationships. Accordingly, quantitative and qualitative (e.g., MICMAC software, structural analysis, and Delphi surveys) and futures studies methods were employed to find 14 affecting factors via visiting 22 specialists. Based on the cross-impact matrix analysis, “Digital Transformation and Technological Progress” and “Amending Existing Regulations, Establishing and Enforcing New and Specialized Legislation” were identified as the initial driving forces. The specialists expanded and then examined four possible scenarios for HW production in Tehran in the next 20 years. A scenario called “Metropolis” was chosen as the preferable future, as it anticipates a reduction in the entire amount of waste discarded by households, a decline in organic waste, and an increase in recyclable dry waste.

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使用未来研究方法的德黑兰家庭垃圾组成情景

关于城市废物产生的准确数据对地方政府制定废物管理政策至关重要。本研究旨在确定影响德黑兰未来家庭废物产生和组成的关键因素，并调查其相互关系。因此，通过访问22位专家，采用定量、定性（如MICMAC软件、结构分析和德尔菲调查）和未来研究方法，发现了14个影响因素。基于交叉影响矩阵分析，确定了“数字化转型与技术进步”和“修改现行法规，建立和执行新的和专门的立法”是最初的推动力。专家们扩展并研究了未来20年德黑兰核设施生产的四种可能情况。一个被称为“大都会”的场景被选为更可取的未来，因为它预计家庭丢弃的废物总量将减少，有机废物将减少，可回收的干废物将增加。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

5.60

自引率

6.50%

发文量

806

审稿时长

10.8 months

期刊介绍： International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology (IJEST) is an international scholarly refereed research journal which aims to promote the theory and practice of environmental science and technology, innovation, engineering and management. A broad outline of the journal''s scope includes: peer reviewed original research articles, case and technical reports, reviews and analyses papers, short communications and notes to the editor, in interdisciplinary information on the practice and status of research in environmental science and technology, both natural and man made. The main aspects of research areas include, but are not exclusive to; environmental chemistry and biology, environments pollution control and abatement technology, transport and fate of pollutants in the environment, concentrations and dispersion of wastes in air, water, and soil, point and non-point sources pollution, heavy metals and organic compounds in the environment, atmospheric pollutants and trace gases, solid and hazardous waste management; soil biodegradation and bioremediation of contaminated sites; environmental impact assessment, industrial ecology, ecological and human risk assessment; improved energy management and auditing efficiency and environmental standards and criteria.