Analysis of the effects of carbon emission reduction policies in key emission sectors in China

Abstract

Understanding the trajectory of carbon emissions and evaluating the efficacy of policies in reducing emissions are imperative for effective carbon mitigation endeavors. This study utilizes ArcGIS to visualize the spatial migration patterns of carbon emissions across China as a whole, specifically focusing on the industry and construction sectors. The spatial distribution is illustrated using standard deviation ellipses. Employing panel data encompassing 26 Chinese regions from 1992 to 2021, we empirically examine the impact of carbon trading policies on emissions in the industry and construction sectors within Hubei Province, employing the synthetic control method. Our findings underscore several key points: (1) Between 1992 and 2021, the center of carbon emissions in China initially shifted towards the southwest before transitioning to the northwest, indicating a shift from a northeast-southwest distribution to a northwest-southeast distribution. The center of carbon emissions within the industry and construction sectors exhibited a comparable southwest shift, indicating a shift from a distribution pattern oriented towards the northeast-southwest direction to one favoring a northwest-southeast pattern. (2) The correlation between carbon emissions and economic progress within the industry and construction sectors in China fluctuated predominantly between states of strong and weak decoupling, with a growing number of provinces successfully achieving this decoupling. As of 2021, every province showcased a decoupling scenario wherein carbon emissions and economic development within these sectors were detached. (3) The implementation of carbon trading mechanisms played a significant role in effectively curbing carbon emissions within Hubei's industry and construction sectors.