A stochastic dynamic network model of the space environment

IF 2.8 3区地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2025.08.051

Yirui Wang, Pietro De Marchi, Massimiliano Vasile

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This work proposes to model the space environment as a stochastic dynamic network where each node is a group of objects of a given class, or species, and their relationship is represented by stochastic links. A set of stochastic dynamic equations, governing the evolution of the network, are derived from the network structure and topology. It will be shown that the proposed system of stochastic dynamic equations well reproduces existing results on the evolution of the space environment. The analysis of the structure of the network and relationships among node can help to understand which species of objects and orbit regimes are more critical and affect the most the future evolution of the space environment. In analogy with ecological networks, we develop a theory of the carrying capacity of space based on the stability of equilibria of the network dynamics.

Some examples are presented starting from the current population of resident objects and different launch traffic forecast models. It will be shown how the proposed network model can be used to study the effect of the adoption of different policies on the execution of collision avoidance and post-mission disposal manoeuvres.

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空间环境的随机动态网络模型

这项工作建议将空间环境建模为一个随机动态网络，其中每个节点是给定类别或物种的一组对象，它们的关系由随机链接表示。从网络结构和拓扑结构出发，导出了一组控制网络演化的随机动力学方程。结果表明，所提出的随机动力学方程组很好地再现了空间环境演化的现有结果。通过对网络结构和节点间关系的分析，可以了解哪些种类的物体和轨道状态更为关键，对未来空间环境的演变影响最大。与生态网络相似，我们建立了基于网络动态平衡稳定性的空间承载能力理论。从目前的驻留目标数量和不同的发射流量预测模型出发，给出了一些例子。将展示如何使用所提出的网络模型来研究采用不同政策对执行避碰和任务后处置演习的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Advances in Space Research 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

11.50%

发文量

800

审稿时长

5.8 months

期刊介绍： The COSPAR publication Advances in Space Research (ASR) is an open journal covering all areas of space research including: space studies of the Earth''s surface, meteorology, climate, the Earth-Moon system, planets and small bodies of the solar system, upper atmospheres, ionospheres and magnetospheres of the Earth and planets including reference atmospheres, space plasmas in the solar system, astrophysics from space, materials sciences in space, fundamental physics in space, space debris, space weather, Earth observations of space phenomena, etc. NB: Please note that manuscripts related to life sciences as related to space are no more accepted for submission to Advances in Space Research. Such manuscripts should now be submitted to the new COSPAR Journal Life Sciences in Space Research (LSSR). All submissions are reviewed by two scientists in the field. COSPAR is an interdisciplinary scientific organization concerned with the progress of space research on an international scale. Operating under the rules of ICSU, COSPAR ignores political considerations and considers all questions solely from the scientific viewpoint.