Regional Mortality From Chronic Liver Diseases in African Countries Attributable to Hepatitis B Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Infections From 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2030.

Abstract

Background: This study aims to explore the magnitude and temporal trend of the chronic liver disease (CLD) burden in Africa and examine the progress toward the global goal of eliminating CLD attributable to HBV and HCV by 2030.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease database were used to extract the mortality burden across 47 African countries between 1990 and 2021. The CLD burden from 2022 to 2030 was projected using the Bayesian age cohort model.

Results: In 2021, the number of CLD-related deaths and age-standardized death rates (ASDR) due to HBV were higher (81 074 deaths and 14.2 per 100 000) compared to HCV (60 717 and 11.2 per 100 000). Western Africa had the highest number of deaths from CLD caused by HBV (33 603) and HCV (19 583), whereas Central Africa experienced the highest ASDR for both HCV (12.7) and HBV (16.1). An increase in CLD deaths is predicted to continue through 2030 across all regions, with the largest increases anticipated for CLD due to HBV (42.5%) in Eastern Africa and CLD due to HCV in Central Africa (45.5%).

Conclusions: Despite a significant decline in ASDR for CLD, the mortality burden of CLD still increased considerably in Africa between 1990 and 2021. By 2030, most African regions are less likely to achieve the global target of CLD elimination, emphasizing the need for international support to reduce the burden of CLD caused by HBV and HCV in Africa.