Connecting Large‐Scale Atmospheric and Land Surface Patterns to New England Riverine Peak Flow Events

Abstract

Riverine flooding in the New England region of the United States of America is devastating, arises from multiple processes during any season, and lacks ties to common climate indices. Here the connection between large‐scale atmospheric patterns and surface conditions prior to and during the occurrence of riverine peak flow events in the heavily‐populated, flood‐vulnerable region of New England is explored. Understanding the mechanisms governing peak‐flows improves the near‐ and long‐term forecasts of hydroclimatic extremes as well as provides supplemental process‐level knowledge for regional water resource planning and emergency response. Through the application of self‐organizing maps, several distinct meteorological and hydrological patterns associated with river discharge events in New England are identified. Using case‐studies of major floods in July and December of 2023, we demonstrate that this methodology provides a mechanistic foundation for understanding the drivers of New England floods and how they might change in a future climate.