Modeling of suitable geographic areas for Striacosta albicosta in corn and dry bean crops under climate change scenarios

Abstract

BACKGROUNDStriacosta albicosta (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an important pest that causes damage to corn and dry beans. This pest originally occurred only in parts of the western United States, but initiated a concerning range expansion in 1999 and is now present in eastern North America, particularly in the Great Lakes region. Consequently, evaluating the geographical distribution of this insect is very important for its management, as it helps to identify current occurrences and predict future spread into different regions of the world. We investigated areas suitable for the establishment of the pest S. albicosta and its hosts, under current and future climate scenarios.RESULTSThe variables that contributed most to the model were the mean annual temperature range, mean annual temperature, and precipitation of the driest month. Although the pest is currently restricted to North America, the study indicates that regions in Europe, Asia, Oceania, South America, and Africa also present suitable conditions for its occurrence. Under current conditions, 11.41% of the area was classified as suitable, whereas 8.81% was identified as highly suitable for S. albicosta.CONCLUSIONThis study is the first to identify regions with suitable climatic conditions for the introduction and establishment of this pest under current and future climate scenarios. These results can guide government agencies in implementing preventive measures, such as inspections and quarantines, to prevent the spread of this pest to new areas. © 2025 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.