Epidemiological trends and incidence prediction of periodontal disease based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.

IF 1.8 Q3 DENTISTRY, ORAL SURGERY & MEDICINE
Frontiers in dental medicine Pub Date : 2025-09-11 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.3389/fdmed.2025.1643049
Keke Zhang, Yingyi Ma, Jinfang Shi, Yudong Geng
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Abstract

Objective: This study aims to assess the burden and long-term trends of periodontal disease at the global level, and to predict future trends.

Methods: Age-standardized YLD rates (ASYRs) of periodontal disease were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated. The time trend of ASYRs caused by periodontal disease was quantified. ARIMA and ES models were used to predict the future trend of periodontal disease.

Results: In 2021, DALYs and YLDs caused by periodontal disease at the global level were 173.97 person-years and 173.97 person-years, respectively. The number of cases was 5,077,653, the prevalence rate was 27,093/100,000, and the incidence rate was 1,855/100,000. From 1990 to 2021, the burden of periodontal disease showed a downward trend. DALYS, YLDs and prevalence were the highest in low SDI and low-middle SDI areas, but the incidence was lower. In 2021, the incidence rate was the highest in tropical Latin America, and the DALY burden was the heaviest in high-income and low-income areas of the Commonwealth, showing the same trend globally. There was a negative correlation between periodontal disease burden and sociodemographic index (SDI). Based on the ARIMA model, the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease is expected to decrease to 1,854.07/100,000 by 2050. The age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1,858.60/100,000. The ES model is more conservative, and it is expected that by 2050, the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1,828.73/100,000. The age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1,841.50/100,000.

Conclusion: ASYRs caused by global periodontal disease have decreased slightly, but they will continue to cause huge losses to healthy life in the future due to population aging and longer life expectancy. It is suggested that the prevention and treatment of periodontal disease should be carried out effectively in combination with the distribution characteristics and causes of periodontal disease in the world.

基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的牙周病流行病学趋势和发病率预测。
目的:本研究旨在评估全球牙周病负担和长期趋势,并预测未来趋势。方法:从全球疾病负担研究数据库中获得牙周病的年龄标准化YLD率(ASYRs)。计算估计年变化百分比(EAPC)。量化牙周病引起asrs的时间趋势。采用ARIMA和ES模型预测牙周病的未来趋势。结果:2021年,全球牙周病导致的DALYs和YLDs分别为173.97人和173.97人年。病例数为5077653例,患病率为27093 /10万,发病率为1855 /10万。1990 - 2021年,牙周病负担呈下降趋势。低SDI和中低SDI地区的DALYS、YLDs和患病率最高,但发病率较低。2021年,热带拉丁美洲的发病率最高,英联邦高收入和低收入地区的DALY负担最重,在全球也呈现出同样的趋势。牙周病负担与社会人口指数(SDI)呈负相关。根据ARIMA模型,预计到2050年,牙周病的年龄标准化发病率将降至1,854.07/100,000。牙周病的年龄标准化发病率将降至1 858.60/10万。ES模型更为保守,预计到2050年,牙周病年龄标准化发病率将降至1828.73 /10万。牙周病的年龄标准化发病率将降至1 841.5 /10万。结论:全球牙周病引起的asrs虽略有下降,但随着人口老龄化和预期寿命的延长,未来仍将对健康生活造成巨大损失。建议结合世界牙周病的分布特点和发病原因,有效开展牙周病的防治工作。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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