Comparative life-cycle analyses reveal interacting climatic and biotic drivers of population responses to climate change.

Abstract

Responses of natural populations to climate change are driven by how multiple climatic and biotic factors affect survival and reproduction, and ultimately shape population dynamics. Yet, despite substantial progress in synthesizing the sensitivity of populations to climatic variation, comparative studies still overlook such complex interactions among drivers that generate variation in population-level metrics. Here, we use a common framework to synthesize how the joint effects of climate and biotic drivers on different vital rates impact population change, using unique long-term data from 41 species, ranging from trees to primates. We show that simultaneous effects of multiple climatic drivers exacerbate population responses to climate change, especially for fast-lived species. However, accounting for density feedbacks under climate variation buffers the effects of climate change on population dynamics. In all species considered in our analyses, such interactions between climate and density had starkly different effects depending on the age, size, or life-cycle stage of individuals, regardless of the life history of species. Our work provides the first general framework to assess how covarying effects of climate and density across a wide range of population models can impact populations of plants and animals under climate change.