Impact of athletic profiles and the relative age effect on the future achievement levels of young basketball players.

Abstract

Talent identification in youth sports is a multifactorial process, with athletic profiling and the Relative Age Effect (RAE) playing critical roles. However, few studies have investigated their combined influence on long-term success in youth basketball. This study explores how athletic profiles and RAE influence future success in young male basketball players. A total of 131 players (age: 14.5 ± 0.7 years; height: 180.6 ± 9.7 cm) were assessed on speed, agility, vertical jump, and endurance. RAE was evaluated via birth quarter distribution. A principal component analysis followed by hierarchical clustering revealed four distinct performance profiles: Hybrid (n = 45), Elevated (n = 34), Resilient (n = 35), and Explosive (n = 19). These clusters were cross-referenced with players' future levels of competition: Amateur (n = 105), Developmental (n = 19), and Elite (n = 9). Both athletic profiles and RAE showed statistically noteworthy associations with future achievement (p < 0.10). Notably, players in the Resilient cluster-characterized by lower physical test scores and later birthdates-were more likely to reach the Elite level. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for individual developmental trajectories and relative age in talent identification. They support a more holistic, long-term approach to player evaluation, challenging the assumption that early physical superiority reliably predicts future elite status.