Urban Edge Predators: Wolf Spatial and Temporal Ecology at the Wildland-Urban Interface in Mongolia.

Abstract

Mongolia's rapidly expanding capital is encroaching on Bogd Khan Mountain, a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and the oldest protected area in Eurasia. Gray wolves (Canis lupus) in this wildland-urban interface are locally near-threatened due to hunting, local beliefs, and human-wildlife conflict. In 2022 and 2023, we deployed 72 camera traps (11,539 trap nights) to investigate how wolves respond to overlapping pressures from free-ranging dogs, livestock, and human activity. Using a random habitat-stratified camera design and abundance modeling, we assessed diel activity and spatial co-occurrence. Wolves exhibited nocturnal and crepuscular activity, with the greatest temporal overlap with wild prey (wapiti: ∆⁴ = 0.73; Siberian roe deer: ∆⁴ = 0.79), moderate overlap with dogs (∆⁴ = 0.60) and horses (∆⁴ = 0.68), and minimal overlap with cattle (∆⁴ = 0.40) and people (∆⁴ = 0.43). Mean wolf abundance estimates ranged from λ = 0.91 (CI 95%, 0.05-1.77) in 2022 to λ = 1.52 (CI 95%, 0.44-3.53) in 2023. Wolves were more abundant at higher relative abundance of wild ungulates and in areas with more people. Wolves co-occurred with dogs at 11 sites and were more abundant in areas with a higher number of dogs. Our findings highlight the complex dynamics between wildlife, livestock, and human-associated disturbances at the wildland-urban interface, underscoring the need for integrated management strategies that address both ecological and human dimensions of conservation.