Comparative Analysis of Perceived Threat Threshold from Various Drivers to Cranes Along Indus Flyway, Punjab, Pakistan.

Abstract

Migratory birds globally face escalating anthropogenic threats, with crane species being particularly vulnerable. This study assessed human-perceived threats to cranes (Grus virgo & Grus grus) along Pakistan's vital Indus Flyway using 400 stakeholder questionnaires across eight districts (2021-2024). We quantified perceived threat based on frequency (1 = Very Rare; 5 = Very Frequent) and severity (1 = Not Severe; 5 = Extremely Severe), revealing poaching (illegal killing) as the dominant threat (frequency = 4.9; severity = 4.8), followed by illegal wildlife trade (4.7; 4.5) and taming (4.6; 4.3). Spatial analysis showed strikingly higher perceived threats in southern Pakistan (Rajanpur: frequency = 4.88, severity = 4.82) versus central regions (Khushab: 3.76, 4.02; p < 0.001), with riverbanks identified as high-risk poaching zones (42 incidents). Cluster analysis also confirmed Rajanpur as a critical hotspot within three distinct threat tiers. Critically, analysis of socio-demographic drivers revealed threat type (frequency: F = 104.92, p < 0.001; severity: F = 153.64, p < 0.001) and poaching method (frequency: F = 10.14, p < 0.001; severity: F = 15.43, p < 0.001) as significant perception-shapers, while education, occupation, and crane species preference (frequency: F = 1.17, p = 0.310) exerted a non-significant influence. These results highlight that individual backgrounds minimally modulate threat perceptions. The study aligns with global evidence of uniform crane threats demanding the following urgent conservation action: region-specific enforcement (especially southern hotspots), community-led anti-poaching initiatives, and targeted awareness programs to shift high-threat communities toward crane-friendly coexistence practices.