Sherlock Holmes Doesn't Play Dice: The Mathematics of Uncertain Reasoning When Something May Happen, That You Are Not Even Able to Figure Out.

Abstract

While Evidence Theory (also known as Dempster-Shafer Theory, or Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its distinctive features. In particular, with this paper I stress that an extended version of Evidence Theory can express the uncertainty deriving from the fear that events may materialize, that one is not even able to figure out. By contrast, Probability Theory must limit itself to the possibilities that a decision-maker is currently envisaging. I compare this extended version of Evidence Theory to cutting-edge extensions of Probability Theory, such as imprecise and sub-additive probabilities, as well as unconventional versions of Information Theory that are employed in data fusion and transmission of cultural information. A possible application to creative usage of Large Language Models is outlined, and further extensions to multi-agent interactions are outlined.