Investigating the impact of climate change on the mortality rates of COPD with the generalized estimating equation

IF 2.9 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Air Quality Atmosphere and Health Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI:10.1007/s11869-025-01734-3

Özlem Akay

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a major global public health concern, with mortality rates affected by various factors, including climate change. Rising global temperatures and increased temperature variability due to climate change present heightened risks for COPD patients, worsening morbidity and mortality. This study investigates the effect of climate change on COPD mortality rates using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE), which account for repeated measures over time and incorporation covariates. The analysis uses longitudinal data from 2009, 2014, and 2019, covering six world regions: North America and the Caribbean, Central and South America, Asia, Oceania, Europe, and Africa. Independent variables include regional classification, temperature levels, and greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicate that COPD mortality rates are significantly associated with greenhouse gas levels and specific regions, particularly Oceania and Europe. However, the temperature variable does not considerably influence COPD mortality statistically. These findings underscore the need for region-specific strategies to mitigate health risks related to climate change.

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用广义估计方程研究气候变化对COPD死亡率的影响

慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）是一个主要的全球公共卫生问题，其死亡率受到包括气候变化在内的各种因素的影响。全球气温上升和气候变化导致的温度变异性增加，增加了COPD患者的风险，加剧了发病率和死亡率。本研究使用广义估计方程（GEE）研究了气候变化对COPD死亡率的影响，该方程考虑了随时间的重复测量和合并协变量。该分析使用了2009年、2014年和2019年的纵向数据，涵盖了六个世界地区：北美和加勒比地区、中南美洲、亚洲、大洋洲、欧洲和非洲。自变量包括区域分类、温度水平和温室气体排放。结果表明，慢性阻塞性肺病死亡率与温室气体水平和特定地区，特别是大洋洲和欧洲显著相关。然而，温度变量在统计学上对COPD死亡率没有显著影响。这些调查结果强调需要制定针对特定区域的战略，以减轻与气候变化有关的健康风险。

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来源期刊

Air Quality Atmosphere and Health ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

2.00%

发文量

146

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health. It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes. International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements. This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.