The impact of weather shocks on food security in Uganda: a panel regression analysis

IF 6.2 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Michael Hübler, Brian Ogenrwoth, Ronald Walusimbi, Peter Ssali, Jackline Bonabana, Samuel Kyamanywa
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Abstract

Climate change endangers food security globally and in Uganda particularly. Our objective was the assessment of weather shocks’ impact on the food security of smallholder households in Uganda. We used the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) data. A multistage cluster sampling procedure had been employed to recruit respondents. We used the periods 2013/2014, 2015/2016 and 2019/2020 to construct an unbalanced panel with 3,935 observations. We employed Poisson and logit fixed effects panel regressions. Food security was measured as the number of meals consumed by a farming household each day or alternatively the likelihood of experiencing a food shortage. Our main result is that weather shocks unequivocally reduce households’ food security. Furthermore, households that are large, female-headed, lack literacy or assets or reside in Northern Uganda or in rural areas tend to suffer from reduced food security. In contrast, non-agricultural (business) activities improve the food security of households. Households with low asset ownership or residing in the North are hit hardest by weather shocks in terms of the number of meals, while households with middle asset ownership are hit hardest regarding food shortages. For development policy, our results are in favour of region-specific support for climate adaptation and for non-agricultural (business) activities, the improvement of literacy via better education and support for building up assets or starting non-agricultural (business) activities.

气候冲击对乌干达粮食安全的影响:面板回归分析
气候变化危及全球,特别是乌干达的粮食安全。我们的目标是评估天气冲击对乌干达小农家庭粮食安全的影响。我们使用了乌干达全国小组调查(UNPS)的数据。采用多阶段整群抽样方法进行调查。我们使用2013/2014年、2015/2016年和2019/2020年期间构建了一个包含3935个观测值的不平衡面板。我们采用泊松和logit固定效应面板回归。粮食安全的衡量标准是一个农户每天消耗的膳食数量,或者是经历粮食短缺的可能性。我们的主要结论是,天气冲击明确地降低了家庭的粮食安全。此外,人口众多、女户主、缺乏文化或资产或居住在乌干达北部或农村地区的家庭往往面临粮食安全下降的问题。相比之下,非农业(商业)活动改善了家庭的粮食安全。受天气影响,低资产家庭和北韩居民的伙食数量最多,中等资产家庭的伙食短缺情况最严重。在发展政策方面,我们的研究结果支持对气候适应和非农业(商业)活动、通过更好的教育提高识字率以及支持建立资产或开展非农业(商业)活动的具体区域提供支持。
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来源期刊
Food Security
Food Security FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-
CiteScore
14.00
自引率
6.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Food Security is a wide audience, interdisciplinary, international journal dedicated to the procurement, access (economic and physical), and quality of food, in all its dimensions. Scales range from the individual to communities, and to the world food system. We strive to publish high-quality scientific articles, where quality includes, but is not limited to, the quality and clarity of text, and the validity of methods and approaches. Food Security is the initiative of a distinguished international group of scientists from different disciplines who hold a deep concern for the challenge of global food security, together with a vision of the power of shared knowledge as a means of meeting that challenge. To address the challenge of global food security, the journal seeks to address the constraints - physical, biological and socio-economic - which not only limit food production but also the ability of people to access a healthy diet. From this perspective, the journal covers the following areas: Global food needs: the mismatch between population and the ability to provide adequate nutrition Global food potential and global food production Natural constraints to satisfying global food needs: § Climate, climate variability, and climate change § Desertification and flooding § Natural disasters § Soils, soil quality and threats to soils, edaphic and other abiotic constraints to production § Biotic constraints to production, pathogens, pests, and weeds in their effects on sustainable production The sociological contexts of food production, access, quality, and consumption. Nutrition, food quality and food safety. Socio-political factors that impinge on the ability to satisfy global food needs: § Land, agricultural and food policy § International relations and trade § Access to food § Financial policy § Wars and ethnic unrest Research policies and priorities to ensure food security in its various dimensions.
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