Coastal erosion and stream flow dynamics: historical analysis and forecasting shoreline changes in the Yeşilırmak delta

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI:10.1007/s12665-025-12537-1

Halil İbrahim Şenol

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examined the historical shoreline evolution and predicted future changes for the Yeşilırmak Delta in Turkey, spanning from 1985 to 2024, with projections extending to 2044. The Yeşilırmak Delta has undergone substantial erosion due to a combination of factors, including sea-level rise and reduced sediment transport resulting from dam constructions along the river. The temporal shoreline changes were analyzed using Landsat satellite imagery and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), employing the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) and object-based classification methods. In addition to the shoreline analysis, a comprehensive examination of streamflow data from 1985 to 2020 was conducted to assess the reduction in sediment transport. This analysis revealed a significant decline in flow rates at key stations, which exhibited a strong correlation with increased coastal erosion. The study forecasts future shoreline changes for 2034 and 2044, emphasizing the pressing need for effective coastal and water resource management strategies to mitigate further degradation and safeguard this vital ecosystem.

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海岸侵蚀和水流动力学：Yeşilırmak三角洲海岸线变化的历史分析和预测

本研究考察了历史上海岸线的演变，并预测了土耳其Yeşilırmak三角洲从1985年到2024年的未来变化，预测延伸到2044年。Yeşilırmak三角洲经历了严重的侵蚀，这是由于一系列因素的综合作用，包括海平面上升和沿河大坝建设导致的沉积物运输减少。利用Landsat卫星图像和数字海岸线分析系统（DSAS），采用修正归一化差水指数（MNDWI）和基于目标的分类方法，分析了时序海岸线变化。除了岸线分析外，还对1985 - 2020年的径流数据进行了全面检查，以评估输沙量的减少。分析结果显示，关键站点的流量显著下降，这与海岸侵蚀的增加有很强的相关性。该研究预测了2034年和2044年未来海岸线的变化，强调迫切需要有效的沿海和水资源管理战略，以减轻进一步退化并保护这一重要的生态系统。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Environmental Earth Sciences 环境科学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

3.60%

发文量

494

审稿时长

8.3 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Earth Sciences is an international multidisciplinary journal concerned with all aspects of interaction between humans, natural resources, ecosystems, special climates or unique geographic zones, and the earth: Water and soil contamination caused by waste management and disposal practices Environmental problems associated with transportation by land, air, or water Geological processes that may impact biosystems or humans Man-made or naturally occurring geological or hydrological hazards Environmental problems associated with the recovery of materials from the earth Environmental problems caused by extraction of minerals, coal, and ores, as well as oil and gas, water and alternative energy sources Environmental impacts of exploration and recultivation – Environmental impacts of hazardous materials Management of environmental data and information in data banks and information systems Dissemination of knowledge on techniques, methods, approaches and experiences to improve and remediate the environment In pursuit of these topics, the geoscientific disciplines are invited to contribute their knowledge and experience. Major disciplines include: hydrogeology, hydrochemistry, geochemistry, geophysics, engineering geology, remediation science, natural resources management, environmental climatology and biota, environmental geography, soil science and geomicrobiology.