Evaluating water supply and demand growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: projections and policy implications for sustainable water resources management

Abstract

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries face severe water scarcity due to rapid population growth, urbanization, and unsustainable agricultural practices, creating an imbalance between water supply and demand. This study examines projected growth in water demand and supply over the next decade and its economic and environmental costs to inform policy development. Trends in water use were analyzed based on available data from 2010, with future projections extending to 2035 using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The study revealed that the GCC’s water consumption averaged 463 cubic meters per capita annually, with 76% used in agriculture, 19% in domestic use, and 5% in industry. Variations in growth rates across countries indicate a need for balanced water management policies. Reducing water demand growth to 1–2%, combined with controlled desalination, groundwater extraction, and treated wastewater reuse, could mitigate future shortages. Virtual water trade and demand management measures are proposed to enhance efficiency. The study estimates that adjusting water demand and supply growth rates could reduce CO₂ emissions by 1.645 million tons in 2024 and 31 million tons by 2035.