Kezhen Yao, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Bin Tong, Saini Yang
{"title":"Rainfall induced mass-movements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: insights on temporal and spatial triggering patterns","authors":"Kezhen Yao, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Bin Tong, Saini Yang","doi":"10.1007/s10064-025-04415-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly affected by rainfall-induced mass-movements (i.e., landslides, debris flows, rock falls) due to its geomorphological and climatic characteristics and anthropogenic activities. However, understanding these events and their triggering characteristics remains limited due to scarce hazard inventories and rain gauge measurements. Using a well-documented dataset of mass-movements (2001–2022) and satellite rainfall estimates, this study comprehensively analyzes the temporal and spatial patterns of the events and their triggers. Results confirm rainfall as the dominant factor, accounting for most fatalities and damages, with antecedent rainfall on the day of occurrence and 7 days prior playing a key role in triggering. Empirical rainfall thresholds at different non-exceedance probabilities, calculated for the first time in QTP, exhibit high parameter robustness and detection capacity. A new methodological approach to evaluate the temporal evolution of the triggering rainfall thresholds reveals a pronounced decreasing trend over the last decade, indicating that the QTP landscape has been experiencing more favorable triggering conditions for mass-movements, particularly under prolonged rainfall. Spatial variations in rainfall triggering conditions were found in several environmental subregions, demonstrating the adaptation of the landscape to different predisposing conditions, with lower-frequency areas showing lower thresholds. This work advances the knowledge of rainfall-induced mass-movements in this peculiar high-mountain area and may lay the foundation for the implementation of operational warning systems for mass-movements in the Third Pole.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":500,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment","volume":"84 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10064-025-04415-8","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly affected by rainfall-induced mass-movements (i.e., landslides, debris flows, rock falls) due to its geomorphological and climatic characteristics and anthropogenic activities. However, understanding these events and their triggering characteristics remains limited due to scarce hazard inventories and rain gauge measurements. Using a well-documented dataset of mass-movements (2001–2022) and satellite rainfall estimates, this study comprehensively analyzes the temporal and spatial patterns of the events and their triggers. Results confirm rainfall as the dominant factor, accounting for most fatalities and damages, with antecedent rainfall on the day of occurrence and 7 days prior playing a key role in triggering. Empirical rainfall thresholds at different non-exceedance probabilities, calculated for the first time in QTP, exhibit high parameter robustness and detection capacity. A new methodological approach to evaluate the temporal evolution of the triggering rainfall thresholds reveals a pronounced decreasing trend over the last decade, indicating that the QTP landscape has been experiencing more favorable triggering conditions for mass-movements, particularly under prolonged rainfall. Spatial variations in rainfall triggering conditions were found in several environmental subregions, demonstrating the adaptation of the landscape to different predisposing conditions, with lower-frequency areas showing lower thresholds. This work advances the knowledge of rainfall-induced mass-movements in this peculiar high-mountain area and may lay the foundation for the implementation of operational warning systems for mass-movements in the Third Pole.
期刊介绍：
Engineering geology is defined in the statutes of the IAEG as the science devoted to the investigation, study and solution of engineering and environmental problems which may arise as the result of the interaction between geology and the works or activities of man, as well as of the prediction of and development of measures for the prevention or remediation of geological hazards. Engineering geology embraces:
• the applications/implications of the geomorphology, structural geology, and hydrogeological conditions of geological formations;
• the characterisation of the mineralogical, physico-geomechanical, chemical and hydraulic properties of all earth materials involved in construction, resource recovery and environmental change;
• the assessment of the mechanical and hydrological behaviour of soil and rock masses;
• the prediction of changes to the above properties with time;
• the determination of the parameters to be considered in the stability analysis of engineering works and earth masses.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
