Statistical modeling of global solar radiation in East and Northeast Brazil

IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences

Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI:10.1007/s12517-025-12281-7

Amaury de Souza, Raquel Soares Casaes Nunes, Deniz Özonur, José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior, Ivana Pobocikova, Marcel Carvalho Abreu, Elias Silva de Medeiros

{"title":"Statistical modeling of global solar radiation in East and Northeast Brazil","authors":"Amaury de Souza, Raquel Soares Casaes Nunes, Deniz Özonur, José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior, Ivana Pobocikova, Marcel Carvalho Abreu, Elias Silva de Medeiros","doi":"10.1007/s12517-025-12281-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>This aim of the study was to model monthly mean global solar radiation (KJ m−2) using hourly data from six locations in the State of Alagoas, located in eastern northeastern Brazil (ENEB). Seven probability distribution function (PDF) models were fitted and evaluated based on statistical indicators such as deviation from means (KJ m−2), root mean square deviation (RMSE, KJ m−2), mean absolute error (MAE, KJ m−2), and coefficient of determination (R2). The hourly data were collected between 2008 and 2016 from INMET’s automatic meteorological stations (EMA) in the coast (three), agreste (2), and sertão (1) climatic mesoregions. The best adjustments of the PDF were GEV (Arapiraca, Pão de Açúcar, and Palmeira dos Índios), Logistic (São Luiz do Quitunde), and EV (Maceió). These adjusted PDFs are essential for better assessing the variability of global solar radiation in the ENEB and for future use of solar energy as an energy matrix in the region, which has the worst socioeconomic indicators and high social vulnerability.</div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"18 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8270,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12517-025-12281-7","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This aim of the study was to model monthly mean global solar radiation (KJ m⁻²) using hourly data from six locations in the State of Alagoas, located in eastern northeastern Brazil (ENEB). Seven probability distribution function (PDF) models were fitted and evaluated based on statistical indicators such as deviation from means (KJ m⁻²), root mean square deviation (RMSE, KJ m⁻²), mean absolute error (MAE, KJ m⁻²), and coefficient of determination (R²). The hourly data were collected between 2008 and 2016 from INMET’s automatic meteorological stations (EMA) in the coast (three), agreste (2), and sertão (1) climatic mesoregions. The best adjustments of the PDF were GEV (Arapiraca, Pão de Açúcar, and Palmeira dos Índios), Logistic (São Luiz do Quitunde), and EV (Maceió). These adjusted PDFs are essential for better assessing the variability of global solar radiation in the ENEB and for future use of solar energy as an energy matrix in the region, which has the worst socioeconomic indicators and high social vulnerability.

查看原文本刊更多论文

巴西东部和东北部全球太阳辐射的统计模拟

这项研究的目的是利用位于巴西东北东部的阿拉戈斯州（ENEB）六个地点的每小时数据来模拟月平均全球太阳辐射（KJ m−2）。根据平均偏差（KJ m−2）、均方根偏差（RMSE, KJ m−2）、平均绝对误差（MAE, KJ m−2）和决定系数（R2）等统计指标对7个概率分布函数（PDF）模型进行拟合和评价。每小时的数据是在2008年至2016年期间从INMET的自动气象站（EMA）收集的，这些气象站位于沿海(3)、格栅(2)和sert(1)气候中区。PDF的最佳调整是GEV (Arapiraca, p o de Açúcar和Palmeira dos Índios), Logistic （s o Luiz do Quitunde）和EV （Maceió）。这些调整后的pdf对于更好地评估ENEB全球太阳辐射的变化以及未来在该地区利用太阳能作为能源矩阵至关重要，因为该地区的社会经济指标最差，社会脆弱性高。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Arabian Journal of Geosciences GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-

自引率

0.00%

发文量

1587

审稿时长

6.7 months

期刊介绍： The Arabian Journal of Geosciences is the official journal of the Saudi Society for Geosciences and publishes peer-reviewed original and review articles on the entire range of Earth Science themes, focused on, but not limited to, those that have regional significance to the Middle East and the Euro-Mediterranean Zone. Key topics therefore include; geology, hydrogeology, earth system science, petroleum sciences, geophysics, seismology and crustal structures, tectonics, sedimentology, palaeontology, metamorphic and igneous petrology, natural hazards, environmental sciences and sustainable development, geoarchaeology, geomorphology, paleo-environment studies, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, GIS and remote sensing, geodesy, mineralogy, volcanology, geochemistry and metallogenesis.