Collective climate geoengineering futures through a global participatory technology foresight exercise

Abstract

Climate change, like other Grand Challenges, raises fundamental issues with how to ensure the public feel fully involved in developing necessary interventions. Technology foresight potentially offers a means to achieve this. This study presents the results of a technology foresight exercise that explores potential climate futures involving climate interventions such as carbon removal and solar geoengineering. We utilize an innovative approach that integrates elements of science and technology foresight with participatory research—instead, “participatory technology foresight”. Our empirical analysis concentrates on emerging climate geoengineering technologies, including direct air capture, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, stratospheric aerosol injection, and marine cloud brightening. Methodologically, we develop an original and comprehensive dataset drawn from 44 public focus groups in both urban and rural settings across 22 countries. Our analysis identified five distinct yet collective climate geoengineering futures: A Global Green Belt, Urban Carbon Gardens, A Scientific Revolution in Soils, Crop Failure and Cancer associated with stratospheric aerosol injection, and An Interplanetary Sunshield. The study examines these futures regarding opportunities and threats as well as the actors involved. The study concludes that participatory technology foresight provides a particularly valuable tool for fully engaging the public in developing policies to confront Grand Challenges.