Exploring the spatial heterogeneity impact of urban expansion on pollution and carbon emissions in China

Abstract

Urban expansion has long posed persistent environmental challenges, making it essential to examine its dynamic impacts on environmental performance across different types of Chinese cities to inform sustainable development strategies. This study proposes a novel evaluation framework, ESLP, which integrates urban expansion intensity, the urban sprawl index, and the land consumption rate to population growth rate (LCRPGR) to assess the multidimensional impacts of urban expansion on pollution and carbon emissions. It analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution of pollution and carbon emissions across 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2022, and applies a combined approach of econometric methods and the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to uncover the multifaceted effects. The results show that urban expansion in most cities is shifting toward intensification, with the coupling coordination degree of pollution and carbon emission reduction exhibiting rapid growth. Moreover, the coupling coordination degree demonstrates strong positive spatial spillover effects, significantly driving improvements in surrounding areas. Furthermore, the role of ESLP on pollution and carbon emissions was deeply addressed, revealing a divergent and spatial heterogeneity impact. These findings offer valuable insights for urban managers, enabling the development of more scientifically grounded and targeted policies to mitigate the adverse environmental impacts of urban expansion.