Environmental risk and burden inequality intensified by changes in cultivated land patterns

IF 10.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108604

Zhenting Zhao , Liangyou Wen , Kaiqin Li , Xiangbin Kong , Xiaoling Zhang

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Abstract

This study quantifies environmental risks and inequalities from cultivated land changes in China using a two-way fixed-effects model. Rapid economic growth has intensified environmental burdens over three decades, exacerbating regional disparities. We integrate planetary boundaries (nitrogen, phosphorus, GHG emissions, bluewater) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2019–2030. The "sustainable development" pathway (SSP1) optimally reduces risks: nitrogen (-61.14 %), GHG emissions (-31.72 %), and bluewater use (-62.87 %). Phosphorus emissions decrease by 104.07 %, eliminating boundary exceedance and achieving sub-boundary safety. SSP1 also lowers environmental inequality (Gini indices: N = 0.18, P = 0.19, GHG=0.27, bluewater=0.27). This framework offers actionable insights for China and Global South nations, demonstrating how sustainable land-use pathways simultaneously mitigate environmental risks and promote equity.

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耕地格局的变化加剧了环境风险和负担不平等

本文采用双向固定效应模型量化了中国耕地变化的环境风险和不平等。30年来，经济的快速增长加重了环境负担，加剧了区域差距。我们在2019-2030年的四条共享社会经济路径（ssp）下整合了地球边界（氮、磷、温室气体排放、蓝水）。“可持续发展”路径（SSP1）最优地降低了风险：氮（- 61.14%）、温室气体排放（- 31.72%）和蓝水使用（- 62.87%）。磷排放量减少104.07%，消除了越界现象，实现了亚边界安全。SSP1还降低了环境不平等（基尼系数：N = 0.18, P = 0.19， GHG=0.27, bluewater=0.27）。该框架为中国和南半球国家提供了可操作的见解，展示了可持续的土地利用途径如何同时减轻环境风险和促进公平。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.