Drilling down: Oil prices, oil production, and production taxes in North Dakota

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105748

Dragan Miljkovic , Puneet Vatsa

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationships between cycles in oil prices, oil output, and production tax revenue in North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state in the United States. The oil industry contributed over 50% to North Dakota's total tax revenue from 2018 to 2022, highlighting the importance of understanding these relationships. The analysis proceeds in two stages. First, we use the Hamilton filter to decompose the three time series to extract their cyclical components. Then, we employ Shannon transfer entropy, an information-theoretic non-parametric technique, to analyze the lead-lag relationships between these cycles. The results show significant information flow from oil price changes to oil production tax revenue and oil output, suggesting that oil market dynamics in North Dakota were primarily driven by price changes; the most considerable flow of information occurred contemporaneously. The results also point to limited feedback from production levels to prices. Overall, these findings underscore the critical role of oil prices in shaping the state's oil production and fiscal outcomes.

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钻探：北达科他州的石油价格、石油生产和生产税

本文考察了美国第三大产油州北达科他州的油价周期、石油产量和生产税收之间的关系。从2018年到2022年，石油行业贡献了北达科他州总税收的50%以上，这凸显了理解这些关系的重要性。分析分两个阶段进行。首先，我们使用Hamilton滤波器对三个时间序列进行分解，提取它们的周期分量。然后，我们利用Shannon转移熵——一种信息论的非参数技术，来分析这些周期之间的超前-滞后关系。结果显示，从油价变化到石油生产税收和石油产量的信息流显著，表明北达科他州的石油市场动态主要由价格变化驱动；最重要的信息流动同时发生。调查结果还表明，从生产水平到价格的反馈有限。总的来说，这些发现强调了油价在影响国家石油生产和财政结果方面的关键作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

13.40

自引率

23.50%

发文量

602

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.