Quantitative analysis of climate change impacts on the resiliency of lithium supply chain

Abstract

In the era of emerging green technologies, climate-related crises are intensifying the challenges facing critical material supply chains by increasing demand for strategic minerals such as lithium. As an essential element of electric vehicles and energy storage technologies, lithium supply chain has also become a geopolitical focal point, demanding closer examination of its weaknesses and resilience.

While the importance of supply chain resilience is widely recognized, much of the existing literature relies on qualitative insights rather than quantitative assessments. This study addresses that gap by presenting a quantitative analysis of climate change impacts on the lithium supply chain, using a hybrid approach that combines Bayesian network and system dynamics modeling. This method captures both probabilistic disruptions and dynamic feedback effects, offering a more comprehensive understanding of resilience.

The research evaluates the effectiveness of three resilience-enhancing strategies—recycling, substitution, and stockpiling—under both normal and severe climate change scenarios. Simulation results indicate that climate change could raise lithium prices by 22 %–38 %, with disruptions to logistics, production, and mining as the main drivers. Recycling and substitution are shown to significantly reduce supply chain vulnerability, whereas stockpiling has minimal impact.

These findings highlight the critical role of circular economy practices and material innovation in ensuring long-term supply stability. By tackling these fundamental issues, this work contributes to resilience theory and provides actionable insights for policymakers and industry leaders preparing for climate-driven supply chain disruptions.