Validation of the ORAC-PCQ, an actuarial risk assessment tool for general recidivism: A psychometric analysis based on Messick's validity framework

Abstract

This article introduces Messick's approach to validation by examining the psychometric properties of ORAC-PCQ, an actuarial tool that has been used in the province of Quebec since 2019. The instrument replaced the LS/CMI, which was deemed too time consuming for Quebec's correctional system which deals with short-term incarceration terms (less than 2 years) and probation. The instrument maintains adherence to risk, need and responsivity principles espoused by other comparable instruments, but it is more tailored toward short-term sentences. Messick's approach to validity testing, which departs from prior psychometric tests used with actuarial assessment tools, was used to assess the psychometric qualities of the ORAC-PCQ. Empirical analyses were conducted with both the ORAC-PCQ and the LS/CMI using data from two samples each (19,349 men and 3522 women with the ORAC-PCQ and 44,077 men and 6490 women with the LS/CMI). The promising results stress the relevance of Messick's approach as a more advanced validation process by which risk assessment tool can be examined.