Evaluating ecological redline policies: Integrating multi-scenario land use simulation with ecological network analysis

Abstract

Ecological redlines (ERLs) are vital for conserving key ecological spaces and maintaining ecosystem connectivity. While existing research has focused primarily on ERLs delineation, less attention has been paid to assessing their impacts. To address this gap, we proposed an innovative framework integrating multi-scenario land use simulation and ecological network analysis to evaluate ERLs policy effectiveness. Using Wuhan as a case study, we simulated land use under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), ecological baseline (EBL), ecological development line (EDL), and ecological redline (ERL). Subsequently, ecological network construction and connectivity analysis were implemented. The results revealed that: (1) ERLs implementation significantly protects cultivated land and curbs urban expansion. (2) Different ERLs vary in effectiveness: The EBL scenario optimizes large-scale ecological source protection; the EDL scenario features the highest number and longest total corridor length; the ERL scenario minimizes the number and area of ecological barrier points. (3) ERLs implementation does not significantly enhance overall network connectivity. (4) Most network indicators under the ERL scenario fall between the EBL and EDL results, demonstrating policy trade-offs in ecological protection. This study provides scientific references for the delineation, evaluation and optimization of ecological policy for sustainable development.