Global mangrove natural regeneration potential assessment for identifying carbon potentials of natural regeneration and plantation

IF 3.7 2区农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY

Forest Ecology and Management Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI:10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123195

Guohao Li, Tianyu Zhuo, Yifei Ma, Xinyu Qi, Xue-yi You

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Mangrove restoration currently relies on plantation strategies, ignoring natural regeneration, which is more efficient, less costly, less demanding and has great potential, due to the lack of understanding of the locations where natural regeneration can occur. Therefore, this study detects the distribution of 532,140 natural regeneration patches, collects 60 factors (climatic, topographic, soil, oceanographic, biological and anthropogenic features) that play a role in the emergence of mangrove natural regeneration outcomes in social-ecological systems, and uses them to construct a random forest machine learning model (AUC = 97.67 %; TSS = 95.34 %) to present a global map of mangrove natural regeneration potential at a resolution of 1 km. This study estimates that there are currently 446,089 pixels (Model range = 434,638–454,829 pixels) with an area of 1 km² that have mangrove natural regeneration potential. The site-level assessment results show that Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Papua New Guinea are the five countries with the largest number of areas possessing natural regeneration potential. In terms of mangrove restoration potential, 73,969 km² of potential restoration area can be realized through natural regeneration, which means that the carbon potential of 4.394 GtC (including biomass and soil organic carbon), which is higher than the 3.603 GtC carbon potential that can only be realized through plantation restoration. For mangrove restoration via natural regeneration, the locations with the greatest potential are the Amazonia ecoregion (the Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW) ecoregion), the Tropical Northwestern Atlantic (the MEOW province), Indonesia (the country), and tidal systems (the coastal environmental setting). Spatial quantification of mangrove natural potential is the key basic data for implementing mangrove natural regeneration strategies and provides important guidance for global mangrove restoration planning and policies.

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全球红树林自然更新潜力评估：确定自然更新和人工林的碳潜力

由于缺乏对自然更新地点的认识，目前的红树林恢复依赖于人工林策略，而忽视了效率更高、成本更低、要求更低且潜力巨大的自然更新。因此，本研究检测了532,140个自然更新斑块的分布，收集了社会生态系统中对红树林自然更新结果产生影响的60个因子（气候、地形、土壤、海洋、生物和人为特征），并利用这些因子构建了随机森林机器学习模型（AUC = 97.67 %;TSS = 95.34 %），绘制了1 km分辨率的全球红树林自然更新潜力图。本研究估计，目前在1 km2的面积上，有446,089个像素（模型范围= 434,638-454,829个像素）具有红树林自然更新潜力。立地级评价结果表明，印度尼西亚、澳大利亚、巴西、墨西哥和巴布亚新几内亚是拥有自然更新潜力面积最多的5个国家。在红树林恢复潜力方面，通过自然更新可实现73969 km2的潜在恢复面积，即4.394 GtC（包括生物量和土壤有机碳）的碳潜力高于只能通过人工林恢复实现的3.603 GtC的碳潜力。通过自然再生恢复红树林，最有潜力的地点是亚马逊地区（世界海洋生态区（MEOW））、热带西北大西洋（MEOW省）、印度尼西亚（该国）和潮汐系统（沿海环境设置）。红树林自然潜力空间量化是实施红树林自然更新战略的关键基础数据，对全球红树林恢复规划和政策制定具有重要指导意义。

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来源期刊

Forest Ecology and Management 农林科学-林学

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

10.80%

发文量

665

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Forest Ecology and Management publishes scientific articles linking forest ecology with forest management, focusing on the application of biological, ecological and social knowledge to the management and conservation of plantations and natural forests. The scope of the journal includes all forest ecosystems of the world. A peer-review process ensures the quality and international interest of the manuscripts accepted for publication. The journal encourages communication between scientists in disparate fields who share a common interest in ecology and forest management, bridging the gap between research workers and forest managers. We encourage submission of papers that will have the strongest interest and value to the Journal''s international readership. Some key features of papers with strong interest include: 1. Clear connections between the ecology and management of forests; 2. Novel ideas or approaches to important challenges in forest ecology and management; 3. Studies that address a population of interest beyond the scale of single research sites, Three key points in the design of forest experiments, Forest Ecology and Management 255 (2008) 2022-2023); 4. Review Articles on timely, important topics. Authors are welcome to contact one of the editors to discuss the suitability of a potential review manuscript. The Journal encourages proposals for special issues examining important areas of forest ecology and management. Potential guest editors should contact any of the Editors to begin discussions about topics, potential papers, and other details.