Distribution patterns and risk assessment of potential ice avalanches and glacier lake outburst floods in southeastern Tibetan Plateau

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114217

Xuwen Tian , Xin Yao , Zhenkai Zhou

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Accelerated glacier retreat in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) under global warming has significantly increased threats from ice avalanches (IAs) and glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study established a comprehensive inventory of IAs and GLOFs in the SETP using multi-source remote sensing data. Hazard assessments were conducted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). The results indicate that: (1) A total of 1,676 IAs and 100 potential GLOFs were identified, primarily located along the eastern Nyainqêntanglha and the western Hengduan Mountains. (2) IAs mostly occur on north-facing slopes with elevations of 4,500–6,000 m and areas of 0.1–0.5 km², while GLOF-related lakes are mainly distributed at 4,000–5,000 m with areas of 0.1–0.3 km² and northward outburst directions. (3) Area and average slope are the primary driving factors for IAs, while glacial lake area and parent glacier slope are identified as the key controlling factors for GLOFs. (4) The hazard assessment results identified 111 high-risk IAs and 16 high-risk GLOFs, with the latter experiencing a 154.7 % increase in area since 1985, and 11 of these lakes exhibit cascading IA-GLOF risks. This comprehensive study enhances understanding of IA and GLOF hazards in the SETP and provide a scientific basis for effective disaster risk management.

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本研究利用多源遥感数据建立了SETP中IAs和GLOFs的综合清单。采用层次分析法（AHP）和模糊综合评价法（FCE）进行危害评价。结果表明：(1)共确定了1676个热点和100个潜在热点，主要分布在Nyainqêntanglha东部和横断山脉西部。(2)湖泊主要分布在海拔4500 ~ 6000 m的北坡上，面积为0.1 ~ 0.5 km2；湖泊主要分布在海拔4000 ~ 5000 m，面积为0.1 ~ 0.3 km2，溃决方向向北。(3)地表面积和平均坡度是地表温度变化的主要驱动因子，冰湖面积和母冰川坡度是地表温度变化的关键控制因子。(4)风险评价结果确定了111个高风险区和16个高风险区，其中高风险区面积自1985年以来增加了154.7%，其中11个湖具有级联性高风险区。这项综合研究提高了对SETP中IA和GLOF灾害的认识，为有效的灾害风险管理提供了科学依据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

8.70%

发文量

1163

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.