Trends and Demographics of Liver Fibrosis and Cirrhosis-Related Mortality Among Adults Living in the United States From 1999 to 2020: A CDC Wonder Analysis

Abstract

Introduction

Liver cirrhosis, the fifth leading cause of adult mortality, involves progressive, irreversible liver fibrosis and loss of function. Its rising prevalence necessitates studying trends, identifying high-risk groups, and enhancing preventive strategies. This study aims to assess temporal trends and demographic disparities in liver fibrosis and cirrhosis-related mortality in the United States from 1999 to 2020.

Methods

Death certificates from the CDC WONDER(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) database for 1999–2020 were analyzed for liver fibrosis and cirrhosis-associated mortality in adults > 25 years. AAMRs per 100 000 were stratified by year, sex, race/ethnicity, and region. Joinpoint Regression (v5.3.0.0) calculated annual percent change (APC) and average APC (AAPC), identifying significant trends (p < 0.05, two-tailed t test).

Results

From 1999 to 2020, 787 375 liver cirrhosis-related deaths occurred in adults > 25. AAMR increased from 16.61 (1999) to 18.93 (2020). Men had a higher AAMR (21.51; 95% CI: 21.44 to 21.57) than women (11.73; 95% CI: 11.68 to 11.77). AAMRs were highest in Non-Hispanic (NH) American Indian (26.42; 95% CI: 25.91 to 26.93) followed by Hispanics (24.93; 95% CI: 24.77 to 25.09), NH White (16.71; 95% CI: 16.67 to 16.75), NH Black (15.13; 95% CI: 15.02 to 15.24), and NH Asian/Pacific Islander (9.29; 95% CI: 9.15 to 9.42). By region, the South had the highest AAMR (18.87; 95% CI: 18.8 to 18.93), followed by the West (15.75; 95% CI: 15.67 to 15.82), Midwest (14.55; 95% CI: 14.47 to 14.62), and Northeast (14.17; 95% CI: 14.1 to 14.25). Micropolitan (Nonmetro) areas had the highest AAMR (17.62; 95% CI: 17.49 to 17.74), while Large Fringe Metro Areas had the lowest AAMR (14.2; 95% CI: 14.13 to 14.27). Texas reported the highest AAMR (25.7); Nebraska reported the lowest (9.4).

Discussion

Liver cirrhosis-related mortality has risen since 1999, especially among Hispanic adults, men, and those in Southern or nonmetropolitan regions. Targeted prevention is needed to reduce mortality in these high-risk groups.