Dynamics of Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of Plantago asiatica L. Under Climate Change: A Case Study of the Uppers of Dadu River—Minjiang River Basin
Yi Huang, Guanghua Zhao, Yang Yang, Jian Yang, Wu Zhi Jia Ba, Jia Lin Li
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Global warming has induced significant shifts in spatiotemporal environmental patterns of plants. P. asiatica, highly prized for its edible and medicinal value, is widely harvested and utilized by residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River. This study employed ensemble models to simulate the potential distribution of P. asiatica in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution and niche. Additionally, a production dynamics model integrating the synergistic effects of ecological suitability and nutritional components of P. asiatica was developed to delineate its current and future potential cultivation zones. The results revealed the following: (1) Currently, both suitable habitats and cultivation zones of P. asiatica are primarily distributed in low-altitude river valley areas within the upper reaches of the Minjiang River and Dadu River. (2) In future periods, high-quality suitable habitats and cultivation zones of P. asiatica will increase to varying degrees, with its niche exhibiting a trend of migration toward higher-altitude regions. (3) Under the SSP5-8.5 climate emission scenario, the areas of suitable habitats and cultivation zones of P. asiatica will experience the greatest expansion, accompanied by the largest amplitude of niche migration. This study will facilitate the formulation of suitability-based management strategies for P. asiatica in the upper reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River, and provide a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of mountain plant resources under climate change.
期刊介绍：
Ecology and Evolution is the peer reviewed journal for rapid dissemination of research in all areas of ecology, evolution and conservation science. The journal gives priority to quality research reports, theoretical or empirical, that develop our understanding of organisms and their diversity, interactions between them, and the natural environment.
Ecology and Evolution gives prompt and equal consideration to papers reporting theoretical, experimental, applied and descriptive work in terrestrial and aquatic environments. The journal will consider submissions across taxa in areas including but not limited to micro and macro ecological and evolutionary processes, characteristics of and interactions between individuals, populations, communities and the environment, physiological responses to environmental change, population genetics and phylogenetics, relatedness and kin selection, life histories, systematics and taxonomy, conservation genetics, extinction, speciation, adaption, behaviour, biodiversity, species abundance, macroecology, population and ecosystem dynamics, and conservation policy.
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