Ecological Niche Modeling Predicts Alarming Impacts of Global Climate Change on Economically Important Neotropical Trees

Abstract

The neotropical papilionoid legume genus Dipteryx comprises tree species widely used for seed harvesting and logging. In Amazonia, all eight known Dipteryx species are internationally recognized in the timber trade as cumaru, whereas two others, known as tonka beans, are appreciated for their aromatic seeds. Non-Amazonian species also have uses, such as baru nuts (D. alata) from the Cerrado and fava-de-morcego (D. lacunifera) from the Caatinga with its edible seeds and dense wood. Amazonia is already highly affected by uncontrolled exploitation and deforestation, which will exacerbate the expected future scenarios of climate change due to severe drought and flooding. These environmental catastrophes have the potential to cause mass species extinction and severely hit vulnerable Amazonian urban populations, Indigenous people, and traditional communities that derive their livelihood from the forest. Here, we assess how the near-term future (2021–2040) global climate change may affect the distribution of Dipteryx species under the moderate and worse greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Additionally, we incorporate insights from the Last Glacial Maximum global changes to enhance our understanding. The ecological niche modeling revealed that while the potential distribution of most Amazonian species remains stable despite global climate change, species with restricted distributions are more vulnerable to global warming. Furthermore, the great ecological predilection of Dipteryx species for wet settings makes them reliant on healthy forest ecosystems. The pressures of logging and deforestation pose significant threats to their survival and to Amazonian biodiversity as a whole.