Past and future changes in maximum air temperature and cold days in winter in Poland

Abstract

The aim of the study was to determine changes in maximum air temperature in winter and the occurrence of cold days in the period 1966/67–2023/24, as well as to prediction the direction and rate of changes in the near future and (2021–50) far future (2071–2100). In the study, cold days were defined as days with Tmax < 0 °C. The research indicated an increase in average Tmax across all stations over the period. The increase in average Tmax was most intense in north-eastern Poland. The observed increase in average Tmax translated into a decrease in the number of cold days across all stations, with the declines being most significant in the north-east. The studies projected that the observed increase in Tmax will continue in the coming decades of the twenty-first century. The prediction warming is most intense for the eastern regions, in both the near and far future. It is also in these regions that the projected changes in numbers of cold days are most intense.